Second In The Two-Part Series On Covid-19, Testing, Cycles And All That Jazz -- October 8, 2020

More on Covid-19, part two of a two-part series. First of two parts here.

1. I still don't understand the actual process. I understand the PCR part of the process but I don't understand how they find the "target" fragment in the first place. It must be absolutely obvious to everyone else since that part of the process is never described.

2. I'm not convinced the "cycle" phenomenon is analogous to the dilution process which would be the flip side of this whole thing. In other words, if you had a solution with a million particles, if you diluted it once 1:1, then you would have a half-million particles in the same amount of fluid. Dilute it again and you have a quarter-million, and so on and so on. This is the basis of homeopathic medicine.

3. If the "cycle" phenomenon is analogous to the homeopathic process then the 2^40th cycle (trillion "dilutions" as it were, this is really, really crazy). Two things: one) at 2^40th we're talking homeopathic concentrations which "no one" really "believes" in; two) it just shows how few viral particles are needed (any virus) to produce symptoms. I think it's all quite amazing.

4. One can see how this is never discussed much in non-specialty media. Most of us have trouble with multiplying / dividing big numbers -- using exponents (2^40) would be beyond the pale. 

AP COVID-19 data: fact-checked by Brian Williams, Rachel Madcow, and the NYT editorial board.

Really Bad Math, Brian Williams

5. But even more amazing, is how these researchers can figure this out. It is truly amazing.